A tariff is a shape, not a rate
Time-of-use makes overnight charging cheap and the dinner hour expensive. Whether it pays depends on how much of your load sits in that window and how much of it can move — not on the headline off-peak rate in the utility’s marketing.
The peak share is the variable that matters
The engine solves for the ceiling: the share of household electricity that can land between four and nine in the evening before the tariff costs more. Above that ceiling, the overnight discount is subsidising load you cannot move.
Two arithmetic rules, both asserted in the tests
The energy shares always sum to one, so shifting load cannot invent kilowatt-hours. And the published break-even is the inverse of the same cost function the table uses, solved numerically — a closed-form ceiling that drifts from its own model is worse than no ceiling at all.
What it ran
peak + off-peak + super off-peak = 1
cost = home × (peak·R_p + off·R_o + super·R_s) + EV × (γ·R_s + (1−γ)·R_o)
ceiling = solve savings(peak share) = 0 by bisection
demand charge = peak kW × $/kW × 12
Coverage
No utility tariffs are bundled. Rates come off your own bill, with a demand-charge field for the riders that add one — several 2026 schedules do, and a model that cannot see it overstates the saving.