A new study shows heat pumps can save Maryland oil and propane users up to $1,600 a year, just as Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) makers raise equipment prices again [1][3]. The two numbers a homeowner needs to plan a system switch are moving in opposite ways at the exact same time.

The big picture:

Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI), a clean energy research group, looked at how people heat their homes. They found that roughly 330,000 single-family homes in Maryland still burn delivered fuels [1]. About 14% use fuel oil, and 4% use propane [1]. Switching these specific homes to a heat pump saves them between $1,200 and $1,600 each year [1]. The biggest savings show up on the Eastern Shore and in Western Maryland [1]. Because of these high savings, the case to switch away from oil and propane has never looked stronger.

What strikes me here: the companies building the gear tell a very different story right now. Dave Gitlin, the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) at Carrier, spoke to investors in September. He said his company must charge more to cover the rising costs of tariffs, fuel, copper, steel, and aluminum [2]. He said they cannot raise prices 8% every four months, but they can and will keep pushing prices up [2]. At the same time, the Chief Financial Officer (CFO) at Trane said they already raised home unit prices twice this year [2]. They added up to 5% on April 1 and another 5% on July 1 to balance out their own costs [2].

By the numbers

  • $1,200 to $1,600 — Yearly savings: What RMI says a Maryland home using oil or propane saves by switching to a heat pump [1].
  • 330,000 — Delivered-fuel homes: The number of Maryland single-family houses running on fuel oil (14%) or propane (4%) [1].
  • 5% to 15% — September price jumps: The range of cost hikes from makers that hit the market in a single month [3].
  • 7.5 million — Higher sales guess: The number of home units Carrier now expects to ship in the U.S. this year [2].

What I’d watch:

The part I keep circling: the math to break even is no longer a simple, still target. The money you save on utility bills is growing. But the price tag to buy the gear is climbing at the exact same time. The real payback time depends entirely on which number moves faster between your first quote and your signed contract.

The people closest to this market treat both sides of the coin as real. Carrier’s CEO noted that people who put off fixing old units last year are finally buying new ones [2]. This returning demand gives makers the room to keep raising prices [2].

  • The savings stay local: Maryland’s big $1,600 yearly savings number does not apply to everyone. It is a story about delivered fuels [1]. It helps oil and propane homes on the Eastern Shore and in Western Maryland, not homes that already burn natural gas [1].
  • The double replacement: A heat pump handles both heating and cooling in one single box [1]. Because of this, homes often replace a broken air conditioner and a dying furnace at the exact same time [1].
  • The rolling price hikes: Makers did not drop all of September’s cost jumps on a single day. The hikes hit in a rolling wave on the 1st, 3rd, and 21st [3]. This turns the final upfront cost into a moving target.
  • The state incentive tool: Maryland uses a special energy program called EmPOWER [1]. State leaders can use this tool to point rebates right at the oil and propane homes that have the most money to gain from a switch [1].

The catch

My read: this push and pull does not mean homeowners should just wait it out. The two big headline numbers are simply not enough to make a final choice on their own.

The $1,600 savings figure is just an average across different electric providers [1]. Your true payback time depends heavily on the exact power rate your local utility charges you [1]. On the other side, September’s 5% to 15% price jumps did not blanket every single unit [3]. They landed roughly and unevenly across service parts and specific product groups [3]. Both of the big trends are true, but neither one tells the whole local story.

At a glance

  • The Big Shift: A new study shows switching to a heat pump saves Maryland oil and propane users up to $1,600 a year, just as makers raise equipment prices by 5% to 15%.
  • Why It Matters: A heat pump upgrade relies on a basic payback math problem, and both inputs just moved in opposite ways. The utility savings hit record highs exactly when the upfront cost to buy the gear got more expensive.
  • What I’d Watch: How fast the equipment price climbs compared to the growing yearly utility savings.
  • The payback race: The core question shifts from whether the system pays for itself to whether it pays for itself before prices rise again.
  • The rolling hikes: September’s price jumps landed on three separate dates, making the upfront cost a moving target for buyers [3].
  • The EmPOWER tool: State leaders can use special programs to point rebates directly at the homes with the most to gain [1].
  • The Catch: Both numbers are broad averages. Your actual savings depend entirely on your local power rate, and the price jumps hit some product lines harder than others.

Related reading

Sources

[1] RMI — “Delivered Fuel Customers in Maryland See Strong Energy Bill Savings in a Switch to Heat Pumps” (Sept 24, 2026) — https://rmi.org/resources/delivered-fuel-customers-in-maryland-see-strong-energy-bill-savings-in-a-switch-to-heat-pumps [2] ACHR News — “Price Increases Remain Part of the Residential HVAC Outlook” (Sept 18, 2026) — https://www.achrnews.com/articles/166689-price-increases-remain-part-of-the-residential-hvac-outlook [3] ACHR News — “HVAC Price Increase List: September 2026” (Sept 2, 2026) — https://www.achrnews.com/articles/166624-hvac-price-increase-list-september-2026